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Villanueva CF vs Atlético Monzón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Villanueva CF
Villanueva CF
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Monzón
Atlético Monzón
2/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 27Estadio Nuevo Enrique Porta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Villanueva CF27%
×Draw26%
Atlético Monzón48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villanueva CF
1.05
Atlético Monzón
1.50

Atlético Monzón creates 43% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 115 away

creates per match

Villanueva CF
0.97
Atlético Monzón
1.22

allows per match

Villanueva CF
1.77
Atlético Monzón
1.13

finishing

Villanueva CF+0.00on par
Atlético Monzón+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villanueva CF ↓

Atlético Monzón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Villanueva CF or draw
52%
Villanueva CF or Atlético Monzón
74%
Draw or Atlético Monzón
73%

Winning margin

Villanueva CF wins by 2+
10%
Atlético Monzón wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Villanueva CF 1+ goals
65%
Villanueva CF 2+ goals
28%
Villanueva CF 3+ goals
9%
Atlético Monzón 1+ goals
78%
Atlético Monzón 2+ goals
44%
Atlético Monzón 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Villanueva CF (draw refunded)
36%
Atlético Monzón (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villanueva CF at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.77 · 31 matches

Atlético Monzón away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.13 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villanueva CF attack 0.97 + Atlético Monzón defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05

Atlético Monzón attack 1.22 + Villanueva CF defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Villanueva CF scores more
27%
level
26%
Atlético Monzón scores more
48%

Atlético Monzón at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlético Monzón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villanueva CF 1 – 1 Atlético Monzón

Villanueva CF and Atlético Monzón drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Enrique Porta in Villanueva de Gállego.