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Atlético Monzón vs Villanueva CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Atlético Monzón
Atlético Monzón
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Villanueva CF
Villanueva CF
9/22/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 6Estadio Isidro Calderón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Atlético Monzón56%
×Draw26%
Villanueva CF18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Monzón
1.52
Villanueva CF
0.73

Atlético Monzón creates 108% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 30 away

creates per match

Atlético Monzón
1.28
Villanueva CF
0.73

allows per match

Atlético Monzón
0.74
Villanueva CF
1.77

finishing

Atlético Monzón+0.00on par
Villanueva CF+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Monzón ↓

Villanueva CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Monzón or draw
82%
Atlético Monzón or Villanueva CF
74%
Draw or Villanueva CF
44%

Winning margin

Atlético Monzón wins by 2+
29%
Villanueva CF wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Atlético Monzón 1+ goals
78%
Atlético Monzón 2+ goals
45%
Atlético Monzón 3+ goals
20%
Villanueva CF 1+ goals
52%
Villanueva CF 2+ goals
17%
Villanueva CF 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atlético Monzón (draw refunded)
76%
Villanueva CF (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Monzón at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.74 · 116 matches

Villanueva CF away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Monzón attack 1.28 + Villanueva CF defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.52

Villanueva CF attack 0.73 + Atlético Monzón defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Atlético Monzón scores more
56%
level
26%
Villanueva CF scores more
18%

Atlético Monzón at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Atlético Monzón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Atlético Monzón 1–2 Villanueva CF

Villanueva CF beat Atlético Monzón 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Isidro Calderón in Monzón.