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Villalbés vs UD Ourense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Villalbés
Villalbés
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
UD Ourense
UD Ourense
11/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Estadio Municipal A Magdalena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Villalbés46%
×Draw28%
UD Ourense26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villalbés
1.31
UD Ourense
0.90

Villalbés creates 46% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 79 away

creates per match

Villalbés
1.49
UD Ourense
0.97

allows per match

Villalbés
0.83
UD Ourense
1.14

finishing

Villalbés+0.00on par
UD Ourense+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villalbés ↓

UD Ourense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Villalbés or draw
74%
Villalbés or UD Ourense
72%
Draw or UD Ourense
54%

Winning margin

Villalbés wins by 2+
21%
UD Ourense wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Villalbés 1+ goals
73%
Villalbés 2+ goals
38%
Villalbés 3+ goals
14%
UD Ourense 1+ goals
59%
UD Ourense 2+ goals
23%
UD Ourense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Villalbés (draw refunded)
64%
UD Ourense (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villalbés at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.83 · 93 matches

UD Ourense away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.14 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villalbés attack 1.49 + UD Ourense defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.31

UD Ourense attack 0.97 + Villalbés defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Villalbés scores more
46%
level
28%
UD Ourense scores more
26%

Villalbés at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Villalbés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villalbés vs UD Ourense

Villalbés beat UD Ourense 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal A Magdalena in Villalba.