UD Ourense vs Villalbés: Preview & Prediction

UD Ourense

CANC

22:00

Villalbés

5/9/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 37Estadio O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

UD Ourense48%

×Draw27%

Villalbés25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD OurenseExpected goals in this matchVillalbés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.94

UD Ourense

1.40

Villalbés

0.94

UD Ourense creates 49% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 94 away

1.74

creates per match

0.90

0.97

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

UD Ourense

1.74

Villalbés

0.90

allows per match

UD Ourense

0.97

Villalbés

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD Ourense+0.00on par

Villalbés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Ourense ↓

Villalbés →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

UD Ourense or draw

75%

UD Ourense or Villalbés

73%

Draw or Villalbés

52%

Winning margin

UD Ourense wins by 2+

23%

Villalbés wins by 2+

Team goals

UD Ourense 1+ goals

75%

UD Ourense 2+ goals

41%

UD Ourense 3+ goals

17%

Villalbés 1+ goals

61%

Villalbés 2+ goals

24%

Villalbés 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD Ourense (draw refunded)

65%

Villalbés (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD Ourense at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.97 · 80 matches

Villalbés away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.05 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD Ourense attack 1.74 + Villalbés defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.40

Villalbés attack 0.90 + UD Ourense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

UD Ourense scores more

48%

level

27%

Villalbés scores more

25%

UD Ourense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "UD Ourense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: UD Ourense host Villalbés

May 9, 2020: UD Ourense take on Villalbés in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

UD Ourense host Villalbés at Estadio O Couto.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

UD Ourense vs Villalbés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Preview: UD Ourense host Villalbés