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Villalbés vs Juvenil Ponteareas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Villalbés
Villalbés
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Juvenil Ponteareas
Juvenil Ponteareas
1/23/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Estadio Municipal A Magdalena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Villalbés58%
×Draw25%
Juvenil Ponteareas17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villalbés
1.59
Juvenil Ponteareas
0.73

Villalbés creates 118% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 16 away

creates per match

Villalbés
1.49
Juvenil Ponteareas
0.63

allows per match

Villalbés
0.83
Juvenil Ponteareas
1.69

finishing

Villalbés+0.00on par
Juvenil Ponteareas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villalbés ↓

Juvenil Ponteareas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Villalbés or draw
83%
Villalbés or Juvenil Ponteareas
75%
Draw or Juvenil Ponteareas
42%

Winning margin

Villalbés wins by 2+
31%
Juvenil Ponteareas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Villalbés 1+ goals
80%
Villalbés 2+ goals
47%
Villalbés 3+ goals
21%
Juvenil Ponteareas 1+ goals
52%
Juvenil Ponteareas 2+ goals
17%
Juvenil Ponteareas 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Villalbés (draw refunded)
77%
Juvenil Ponteareas (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villalbés at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.83 · 93 matches

Juvenil Ponteareas away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villalbés attack 1.49 + Juvenil Ponteareas defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.59

Juvenil Ponteareas attack 0.63 + Villalbés defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Villalbés scores more
58%
level
25%
Juvenil Ponteareas scores more
17%

Villalbés at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Villalbés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villalbés 2 – 0 Juvenil Ponteareas

Villalbés beat Juvenil Ponteareas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal A Magdalena in Villalba.