Juvenil Ponteareas 2–0 Villalbés: Result & Stats

Juvenil Ponteareas

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Villalbés

9/26/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Estadio Municipal de Pardellas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Juvenil Ponteareas35%

×Draw31%

Villalbés33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juvenil PonteareasExpected goals in this matchVillalbés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

0.95

Juvenil Ponteareas

0.99

Villalbés

0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 94 away

0.94

creates per match

0.90

1.00

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Juvenil Ponteareas

0.94

Villalbés

0.90

allows per match

Juvenil Ponteareas

1.00

Villalbés

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juvenil Ponteareas+0.00on par

Villalbés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juvenil Ponteareas ↓

Villalbés →

0–014%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Juvenil Ponteareas or draw

67%

Juvenil Ponteareas or Villalbés

69%

Draw or Villalbés

65%

Winning margin

Juvenil Ponteareas wins by 2+

13%

Villalbés wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Juvenil Ponteareas 1+ goals

63%

Juvenil Ponteareas 2+ goals

26%

Juvenil Ponteareas 3+ goals

Villalbés 1+ goals

61%

Villalbés 2+ goals

25%

Villalbés 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Juvenil Ponteareas (draw refunded)

52%

Villalbés (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Juvenil Ponteareas at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Villalbés away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.05 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Juvenil Ponteareas attack 0.94 + Villalbés defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Villalbés attack 0.90 + Juvenil Ponteareas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 35%?"

Juvenil Ponteareas scores more

35%

level

31%

Villalbés scores more

33%

Juvenil Ponteareas at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Juvenil Ponteareas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Juvenil Ponteareas 2–0 Villalbés

Juvenil Ponteareas beat Villalbés 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Pardellas in Ponteareas.

Juvenil Ponteareas vs Villalbés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Juvenil Ponteareas 2–0 Villalbés