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Villalbés vs Arzúa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Villalbés
Villalbés
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Arzúa
Arzúa
1/22/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Estadio Municipal A Magdalena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Villalbés56%
×Draw25%
Arzúa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villalbés
1.61
Arzúa
0.84

Villalbés creates 92% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 79 away

creates per match

Villalbés
1.49
Arzúa
0.86

allows per match

Villalbés
0.83
Arzúa
1.73

finishing

Villalbés+0.00on par
Arzúa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villalbés ↓

Arzúa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Villalbés or draw
80%
Villalbés or Arzúa
75%
Draw or Arzúa
44%

Winning margin

Villalbés wins by 2+
30%
Arzúa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Villalbés 1+ goals
80%
Villalbés 2+ goals
48%
Villalbés 3+ goals
22%
Arzúa 1+ goals
57%
Arzúa 2+ goals
21%
Arzúa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Villalbés (draw refunded)
74%
Arzúa (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villalbés at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.83 · 93 matches

Arzúa away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.73 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villalbés attack 1.49 + Arzúa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.61

Arzúa attack 0.86 + Villalbés defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Villalbés scores more
56%
level
25%
Arzúa scores more
20%

Villalbés at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Villalbés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Villalbés 1–1 Arzúa

Villalbés and Arzúa drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal A Magdalena in Villalba.