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Arzúa vs Villalbés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Arzúa
Arzúa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Villalbés
Villalbés
9/18/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Estadio Do Viso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Arzúa40%
×Draw29%
Villalbés31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arzúa
1.18
Villalbés
0.99

Arzúa creates 19% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 94 away

creates per match

Arzúa
1.31
Villalbés
0.90

allows per match

Arzúa
1.08
Villalbés
1.05

finishing

Arzúa+0.00on par
Villalbés+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzúa ↓

Villalbés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Arzúa or draw
69%
Arzúa or Villalbés
71%
Draw or Villalbés
60%

Winning margin

Arzúa wins by 2+
17%
Villalbés wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Arzúa 1+ goals
69%
Arzúa 2+ goals
33%
Arzúa 3+ goals
12%
Villalbés 1+ goals
63%
Villalbés 2+ goals
26%
Villalbés 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arzúa (draw refunded)
57%
Villalbés (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arzúa at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.08 · 78 matches

Villalbés away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.05 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arzúa attack 1.31 + Villalbés defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.18

Villalbés attack 0.90 + Arzúa defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Arzúa scores more
40%
level
29%
Villalbés scores more
31%

Arzúa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Arzúa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Arzúa 2–0 Villalbés

Arzúa beat Villalbés 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Do Viso in Arzúa.