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Villafranca vs Union Feltre — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Villafranca
Villafranca
FT
4 – 1
Union Feltre
Union Feltre
10/6/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 7Stadio Comunale (Villafranca di Verona)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Villafranca25%
×Draw24%
Union Feltre50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villafranca
1.10
Union Feltre
1.65

Union Feltre creates 50% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 13 away

creates per match

Villafranca
0.90
Union Feltre
2.00

allows per match

Villafranca
1.29
Union Feltre
1.31

finishing

Villafranca+0.00on par
Union Feltre+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villafranca ↓

Union Feltre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Villafranca or draw
50%
Villafranca or Union Feltre
76%
Draw or Union Feltre
75%

Winning margin

Villafranca wins by 2+
10%
Union Feltre wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Villafranca 1+ goals
67%
Villafranca 2+ goals
30%
Villafranca 3+ goals
10%
Union Feltre 1+ goals
81%
Union Feltre 2+ goals
49%
Union Feltre 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Villafranca (draw refunded)
34%
Union Feltre (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villafranca at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

Union Feltre away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villafranca attack 0.90 + Union Feltre defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.10

Union Feltre attack 2.00 + Villafranca defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Villafranca scores more
25%
level
24%
Union Feltre scores more
50%

Union Feltre at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Union Feltre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villafranca vs Union Feltre

Villafranca beat Union Feltre 4-1 in Serie D - Girone C on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale (Villafranca di Verona).