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Union Feltre vs Villafranca — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Union Feltre
Union Feltre
FT
1 – 0
Villafranca
Villafranca
2/9/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 26Stadio Zugni Tauro (Feltre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Union Feltre46%
×Draw29%
Villafranca25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Feltre
1.24
Villafranca
0.82

Union Feltre creates 51% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 30 away

creates per match

Union Feltre
0.86
Villafranca
1.07

allows per match

Union Feltre
0.57
Villafranca
1.63

finishing

Union Feltre+0.00on par
Villafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Feltre ↓

Villafranca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Union Feltre or draw
75%
Union Feltre or Villafranca
71%
Draw or Villafranca
54%

Winning margin

Union Feltre wins by 2+
21%
Villafranca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Union Feltre 1+ goals
71%
Union Feltre 2+ goals
35%
Union Feltre 3+ goals
13%
Villafranca 1+ goals
56%
Villafranca 2+ goals
20%
Villafranca 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Union Feltre (draw refunded)
65%
Villafranca (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Feltre at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Villafranca away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Feltre attack 0.86 + Villafranca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.24

Villafranca attack 1.07 + Union Feltre defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Union Feltre scores more
46%
level
29%
Villafranca scores more
25%

Union Feltre at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Union Feltre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Union Feltre 1–0 Villafranca

Union Feltre beat Villafranca 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Zugni Tauro (Feltre).