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Villafranca vs Don Benito — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Villafranca
Villafranca
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Don Benito
Don Benito
10/29/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 9Estadio Municipal de Villafranca de los Barros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Villafranca29%
×Draw28%
Don Benito43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villafranca
1.02
Don Benito
1.31

Don Benito creates 28% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 34 away

creates per match

Villafranca
1.42
Don Benito
1.65

allows per match

Villafranca
0.98
Don Benito
0.62

finishing

Villafranca+0.00on par
Don Benito+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villafranca ↓

Don Benito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Villafranca or draw
57%
Villafranca or Don Benito
72%
Draw or Don Benito
71%

Winning margin

Villafranca wins by 2+
11%
Don Benito wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Villafranca 1+ goals
64%
Villafranca 2+ goals
27%
Villafranca 3+ goals
8%
Don Benito 1+ goals
73%
Don Benito 2+ goals
38%
Don Benito 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Villafranca (draw refunded)
40%
Don Benito (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villafranca at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.98 · 81 matches

Don Benito away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villafranca attack 1.42 + Don Benito defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.02

Don Benito attack 1.65 + Villafranca defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Villafranca scores more
29%
level
28%
Don Benito scores more
43%

Don Benito at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Don Benito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villafranca 0 – 1 Don Benito

Don Benito beat Villafranca 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Villafranca de los Barros in Villafranca de los Barros.