Don Benito 0–1 Villafranca: Result & Stats

Don Benito

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Villafranca

3/17/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 26Estadio Vicente Sanz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Don Benito64%

×Draw22%

Villafranca15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Don BenitoExpected goals in this matchVillafranca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.78

Don Benito

1.89

Villafranca

0.78

Don Benito creates 142% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 81 away

2.50

creates per match

1.16

0.41

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Don Benito

2.50

Villafranca

1.16

allows per match

Don Benito

0.41

Villafranca

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Don Benito+0.00on par

Villafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Benito ↓

Villafranca →

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Don Benito or draw

85%

Don Benito or Villafranca

78%

Draw or Villafranca

36%

Winning margin

Don Benito wins by 2+

38%

Villafranca wins by 2+

Team goals

Don Benito 1+ goals

85%

Don Benito 2+ goals

56%

Don Benito 3+ goals

29%

Villafranca 1+ goals

54%

Villafranca 2+ goals

18%

Villafranca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Don Benito (draw refunded)

81%

Villafranca (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Don Benito at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.41 · 34 matches

Villafranca away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Don Benito attack 2.50 + Villafranca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.89

Villafranca attack 1.16 + Don Benito defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Don Benito scores more

64%

level

22%

Villafranca scores more

15%

Don Benito at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Don Benito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff