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Villafranca vs Cartigliano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Villafranca
Villafranca
FT
0 – 3
Cartigliano
Cartigliano
9/8/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 2Stadio Comunale (Villafranca di Verona)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Villafranca31%
×Draw27%
Cartigliano42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villafranca
1.14
Cartigliano
1.36

Cartigliano creates 19% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 49 away

creates per match

Villafranca
0.90
Cartigliano
1.43

allows per match

Villafranca
1.29
Cartigliano
1.37

finishing

Villafranca+0.00on par
Cartigliano+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villafranca ↓

Cartigliano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Villafranca or draw
58%
Villafranca or Cartigliano
73%
Draw or Cartigliano
69%

Winning margin

Villafranca wins by 2+
13%
Cartigliano wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Villafranca 1+ goals
68%
Villafranca 2+ goals
32%
Villafranca 3+ goals
11%
Cartigliano 1+ goals
74%
Cartigliano 2+ goals
39%
Cartigliano 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Villafranca (draw refunded)
43%
Cartigliano (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villafranca at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

Cartigliano away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villafranca attack 0.90 + Cartigliano defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.14

Cartigliano attack 1.43 + Villafranca defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Villafranca scores more
31%
level
27%
Cartigliano scores more
42%

Cartigliano at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cartigliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Villafranca 0–3 Cartigliano

Cartigliano beat Villafranca 3-0 in Serie D - Girone C on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale (Villafranca di Verona).