Cartigliano 1–1 Villafranca: Result & Stats

Cartigliano

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Villafranca

12/4/2022

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 14Stadio Fair Play di Cartigliano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Cartigliano45%

×Draw25%

Villafranca29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CartiglianoExpected goals in this matchVillafranca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.18

Cartigliano

1.53

Villafranca

1.18

Cartigliano creates 30% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 30 away

1.43

creates per match

1.07

1.28

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Cartigliano

1.43

Villafranca

1.07

allows per match

Cartigliano

1.28

Villafranca

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cartigliano+0.00on par

Villafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartigliano ↓

Villafranca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cartigliano or draw

71%

Cartigliano or Villafranca

75%

Draw or Villafranca

55%

Winning margin

Cartigliano wins by 2+

23%

Villafranca wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cartigliano 1+ goals

78%

Cartigliano 2+ goals

45%

Cartigliano 3+ goals

20%

Villafranca 1+ goals

69%

Villafranca 2+ goals

33%

Villafranca 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cartigliano (draw refunded)

61%

Villafranca (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartigliano at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Villafranca away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartigliano attack 1.43 + Villafranca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.53

Villafranca attack 1.07 + Cartigliano defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cartigliano scores more

45%

level

25%

Villafranca scores more

29%

Cartigliano at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cartigliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff