Villa Valle 2–1 Luparense: Result & Stats

Villa Valle

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Luparense

M. Perrotti 72'

A. Torri 40'

S. Bajic 29'

4/17/2025

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 36Campo Sportivo Comunale Villa D'Almè

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Villa Valle47%

×Draw25%

Luparense28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa ValleExpected goals in this matchLuparense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.21

Villa Valle

1.63

Luparense

1.21

Villa Valle creates 35% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 101 away

1.95

creates per match

1.21

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Villa Valle

1.95

Luparense

1.21

allows per match

Villa Valle

1.21

Luparense

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Valle+0.00on par

Luparense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Valle ↓

Luparense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Villa Valle or draw

72%

Villa Valle or Luparense

75%

Draw or Luparense

53%

Winning margin

Villa Valle wins by 2+

24%

Luparense wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Villa Valle 1+ goals

80%

Villa Valle 2+ goals

48%

Villa Valle 3+ goals

22%

Luparense 1+ goals

70%

Luparense 2+ goals

34%

Luparense 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Villa Valle (draw refunded)

62%

Luparense (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Valle at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Luparense away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.30 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Valle attack 1.95 + Luparense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.63

Luparense attack 1.21 + Villa Valle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Villa Valle scores more

47%

level

25%

Luparense scores more

28%

Villa Valle at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Villa Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

S. Bajic

40'

A. Torri

71'

72'

M. Perrotti

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff