Luparense 1–1 Villa Valle: Result & Stats

Luparense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Villa Valle

M. D'Aloia 67'

C. Ferrario 28'

12/8/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 17Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Luparense41%

×Draw27%

Villa Valle32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LuparenseExpected goals in this matchVilla Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.16

Luparense

1.35

Villa Valle

1.16

Luparense creates 16% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 19 away

1.58

creates per match

1.32

0.99

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Luparense

1.58

Villa Valle

1.32

allows per match

Luparense

0.99

Villa Valle

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luparense+0.00on par

Villa Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luparense ↓

Villa Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Luparense or draw

68%

Luparense or Villa Valle

73%

Draw or Villa Valle

59%

Winning margin

Luparense wins by 2+

19%

Villa Valle wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Luparense 1+ goals

74%

Luparense 2+ goals

39%

Luparense 3+ goals

15%

Villa Valle 1+ goals

69%

Villa Valle 2+ goals

32%

Villa Valle 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Luparense (draw refunded)

56%

Villa Valle (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luparense at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.99 · 100 matches

Villa Valle away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luparense attack 1.58 + Villa Valle defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.35

Villa Valle attack 1.32 + Luparense defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Luparense scores more

41%

level

27%

Villa Valle scores more

32%

Luparense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Luparense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

C. Ferrario

67'

M. D'Aloia

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff