Villa Valle 5–2 Dolomiti Bellunesi: Result & Stats

Villa Valle

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Dolomiti Bellunesi

3/2/2025

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 30Campo Sportivo Comunale Villa D'Almè

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Villa Valle43%

×Draw24%

Dolomiti Bellunesi32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa ValleExpected goals in this matchDolomiti Bellunesi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.34

Villa Valle

1.59

Dolomiti Bellunesi

1.34

Villa Valle creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 70 away

1.95

creates per match

1.47

1.21

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Villa Valle

1.95

Dolomiti Bellunesi

1.47

allows per match

Villa Valle

1.21

Dolomiti Bellunesi

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Valle+0.00on par

Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Valle ↓

Dolomiti Bellunesi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Villa Valle or draw

68%

Villa Valle or Dolomiti Bellunesi

76%

Draw or Dolomiti Bellunesi

57%

Winning margin

Villa Valle wins by 2+

22%

Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Villa Valle 1+ goals

80%

Villa Valle 2+ goals

47%

Villa Valle 3+ goals

21%

Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals

74%

Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals

39%

Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Villa Valle (draw refunded)

57%

Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Valle at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Valle attack 1.95 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.59

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.47 + Villa Valle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Villa Valle scores more

43%

level

24%

Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more

32%

Villa Valle at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Villa Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff