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Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Villa Valle — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Dolomiti Bellunesi
Dolomiti Bellunesi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Villa Valle
Villa Valle
T. H. Olonisakin 82'
10/27/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 11Stadio Zugni Tauro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi40%
×Draw27%
Villa Valle33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.35
Villa Valle
1.20

Dolomiti Bellunesi creates 13% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 19 away

creates per match

Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.59
Villa Valle
1.32

allows per match

Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.07
Villa Valle
1.11

finishing

Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par
Villa Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolomiti Bellunesi ↓

Villa Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dolomiti Bellunesi or draw
67%
Dolomiti Bellunesi or Villa Valle
73%
Draw or Villa Valle
60%

Winning margin

Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+
18%
Villa Valle wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals
74%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals
39%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals
15%
Villa Valle 1+ goals
70%
Villa Valle 2+ goals
34%
Villa Valle 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)
55%
Villa Valle (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolomiti Bellunesi at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

Villa Valle away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.59 + Villa Valle defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.35

Villa Valle attack 1.32 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more
40%
level
27%
Villa Valle scores more
33%

Dolomiti Bellunesi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dolomiti Bellunesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

82'
T. H. Olonisakin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Dolomiti Bellunesi 1–0 Villa Valle

Dolomiti Bellunesi beat Villa Valle 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on October 27, 2024.

Goals: T. H. Olonisakin (82').

The match was played at Stadio Zugni Tauro in Feltre.