Villa Valle 1–1 Cjarlins Muzane: Result & Stats

Villa Valle

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cjarlins Muzane

A. Zaccariello 39'

C. Benomia 47'

9/18/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 3Campo Sportivo Comunale Villa D'Almè

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Villa Valle47%

×Draw25%

Cjarlins Muzane28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa ValleExpected goals in this matchCjarlins Muzane

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.18

Villa Valle

1.59

Cjarlins Muzane

1.18

Villa Valle creates 35% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 101 away

1.95

creates per match

1.15

1.21

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Villa Valle

1.95

Cjarlins Muzane

1.15

allows per match

Villa Valle

1.21

Cjarlins Muzane

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Valle+0.00on par

Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Valle ↓

Cjarlins Muzane →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Villa Valle or draw

72%

Villa Valle or Cjarlins Muzane

75%

Draw or Cjarlins Muzane

53%

Winning margin

Villa Valle wins by 2+

24%

Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Villa Valle 1+ goals

80%

Villa Valle 2+ goals

47%

Villa Valle 3+ goals

21%

Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals

69%

Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals

33%

Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Villa Valle (draw refunded)

62%

Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Valle at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Cjarlins Muzane away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Valle attack 1.95 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.59

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.15 + Villa Valle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Villa Valle scores more

47%

level

25%

Cjarlins Muzane scores more

28%

Villa Valle at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Villa Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

A. Zaccariello

47'

C. Benomia

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff