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Cjarlins Muzane vs Villa Valle — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Cjarlins Muzane
Cjarlins Muzane
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Villa Valle
Villa Valle
R. Beretta 70'
C. Ferrario 56'
1/15/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 22Stadio Via Rizzolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cjarlins Muzane35%
×Draw27%
Villa Valle38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cjarlins Muzane
1.24
Villa Valle
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 19 away

creates per match

Cjarlins Muzane
1.37
Villa Valle
1.32

allows per match

Cjarlins Muzane
1.26
Villa Valle
1.11

finishing

Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par
Villa Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cjarlins Muzane ↓

Villa Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cjarlins Muzane or draw
62%
Cjarlins Muzane or Villa Valle
73%
Draw or Villa Valle
65%

Winning margin

Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+
15%
Villa Valle wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals
71%
Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals
35%
Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals
13%
Villa Valle 1+ goals
72%
Villa Valle 2+ goals
37%
Villa Valle 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)
48%
Villa Valle (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cjarlins Muzane at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 101 matches

Villa Valle away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.37 + Villa Valle defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.24

Villa Valle attack 1.32 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cjarlins Muzane scores more
35%
level
27%
Villa Valle scores more
38%

Villa Valle at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Villa Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
C. Ferrario
70'
R. Beretta

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Cjarlins Muzane 0–2 Villa Valle

Villa Valle beat Cjarlins Muzane 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on January 15, 2025.

Goals: C. Ferrario (56'), R. Beretta (70').

The match was played at Stadio Via Rizzolo in Carlino.