Villa Valle 3–0 Chions: Result & Stats

Villa Valle

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Chions

11/3/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 12Campo Sportivo Comunale Villa D'Almè

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Villa Valle54%

×Draw22%

Chions23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa ValleExpected goals in this matchChions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.16

Villa Valle

1.90

Chions

1.16

Villa Valle creates 64% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 50 away

1.95

creates per match

1.10

1.21

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Villa Valle

1.95

Chions

1.10

allows per match

Villa Valle

1.21

Chions

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Valle+0.00on par

Chions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Valle ↓

Chions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Villa Valle or draw

77%

Villa Valle or Chions

78%

Draw or Chions

46%

Winning margin

Villa Valle wins by 2+

31%

Chions wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Villa Valle 1+ goals

85%

Villa Valle 2+ goals

56%

Villa Valle 3+ goals

29%

Chions 1+ goals

69%

Chions 2+ goals

32%

Chions 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Villa Valle (draw refunded)

70%

Chions (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Valle at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Chions away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.84 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Valle attack 1.95 + Chions defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.90

Chions attack 1.10 + Villa Valle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Villa Valle scores more

54%

level

22%

Chions scores more

23%

Villa Valle at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Villa Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff