Chions 1–1 Villa Valle: Result & Stats

Chions

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Villa Valle

S. Vaghi 90+3'

C. Ferrario 28'

3/9/2025

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 31Stadio Comunale Francesco Tesolin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Chions34%

×Draw28%

Villa Valle38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChionsExpected goals in this matchVilla Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.24

Chions

1.15

Villa Valle

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 19 away

1.18

creates per match

1.32

1.16

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Chions

1.18

Villa Valle

1.32

allows per match

Chions

1.16

Villa Valle

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chions+0.00on par

Villa Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chions ↓

Villa Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chions or draw

62%

Chions or Villa Valle

72%

Draw or Villa Valle

66%

Winning margin

Chions wins by 2+

14%

Villa Valle wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Chions 1+ goals

68%

Chions 2+ goals

32%

Chions 3+ goals

11%

Villa Valle 1+ goals

71%

Villa Valle 2+ goals

35%

Villa Valle 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Chions (draw refunded)

47%

Villa Valle (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chions at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.16 · 50 matches

Villa Valle away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chions attack 1.18 + Villa Valle defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Villa Valle attack 1.32 + Chions defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chions scores more

34%

level

28%

Villa Valle scores more

38%

Villa Valle at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Villa Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

C. Ferrario

90+3'

S. Vaghi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff