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Villa Valle vs Caravaggio — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Villa Valle
Villa Valle
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Caravaggio
Caravaggio
10/23/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 10Campo Sportivo Comunale Villa D'Almè

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Villa Valle50%
×Draw24%
Caravaggio26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Valle
1.66
Caravaggio
1.13

Villa Valle creates 47% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Villa Valle
1.95
Caravaggio
1.05

allows per match

Villa Valle
1.21
Caravaggio
1.37

finishing

Villa Valle+0.00on par
Caravaggio+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Valle ↓

Caravaggio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Villa Valle or draw
74%
Villa Valle or Caravaggio
76%
Draw or Caravaggio
50%

Winning margin

Villa Valle wins by 2+
26%
Caravaggio wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Villa Valle 1+ goals
81%
Villa Valle 2+ goals
49%
Villa Valle 3+ goals
23%
Caravaggio 1+ goals
68%
Caravaggio 2+ goals
31%
Caravaggio 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Villa Valle (draw refunded)
66%
Caravaggio (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Valle at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Caravaggio away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Valle attack 1.95 + Caravaggio defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.66

Caravaggio attack 1.05 + Villa Valle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Villa Valle scores more
50%
level
24%
Caravaggio scores more
26%

Villa Valle at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Villa Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villa Valle vs Caravaggio

Villa Valle beat Caravaggio 3-2 in Serie D - Girone C on October 23, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Villa D'Almè in Villa D'Almè.