Caravaggio 1–3 Villa Valle: Result & Stats

Caravaggio

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Villa Valle

2/23/2025

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 29Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Caravaggio30%

×Draw27%

Villa Valle43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaravaggioExpected goals in this matchVilla Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.37

Caravaggio

1.11

Villa Valle

1.37

Villa Valle creates 23% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.11

creates per match

1.32

1.42

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Caravaggio

1.11

Villa Valle

1.32

allows per match

Caravaggio

1.42

Villa Valle

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caravaggio+0.00on par

Villa Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caravaggio ↓

Villa Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Caravaggio or draw

57%

Caravaggio or Villa Valle

73%

Draw or Villa Valle

70%

Winning margin

Caravaggio wins by 2+

12%

Villa Valle wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Caravaggio 1+ goals

67%

Caravaggio 2+ goals

30%

Caravaggio 3+ goals

10%

Villa Valle 1+ goals

75%

Villa Valle 2+ goals

40%

Villa Valle 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Caravaggio (draw refunded)

42%

Villa Valle (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caravaggio at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Villa Valle away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caravaggio attack 1.11 + Villa Valle defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.11

Villa Valle attack 1.32 + Caravaggio defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Caravaggio scores more

30%

level

27%

Villa Valle scores more

43%

Villa Valle at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Villa Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff