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Villa Valle vs Calvi Noale — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Villa Valle
Villa Valle
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Calvi Noale
Calvi Noale
B. Mecca 47'
N. Stalla 24'
12/1/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 16Campo Sportivo Comunale Villa D'Almè

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Villa Valle48%
×Draw25%
Calvi Noale27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Valle
1.58
Calvi Noale
1.12

Villa Valle creates 41% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 36 away

creates per match

Villa Valle
1.95
Calvi Noale
1.03

allows per match

Villa Valle
1.21
Calvi Noale
1.22

finishing

Villa Valle+0.00on par
Calvi Noale+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Valle ↓

Calvi Noale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Villa Valle or draw
73%
Villa Valle or Calvi Noale
75%
Draw or Calvi Noale
52%

Winning margin

Villa Valle wins by 2+
25%
Calvi Noale wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Villa Valle 1+ goals
79%
Villa Valle 2+ goals
47%
Villa Valle 3+ goals
21%
Calvi Noale 1+ goals
67%
Calvi Noale 2+ goals
31%
Calvi Noale 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Villa Valle (draw refunded)
64%
Calvi Noale (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Valle at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Calvi Noale away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.22 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Valle attack 1.95 + Calvi Noale defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.58

Calvi Noale attack 1.03 + Villa Valle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Villa Valle scores more
48%
level
25%
Calvi Noale scores more
27%

Villa Valle at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Villa Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
N. Stalla
47'
B. Mecca

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villa Valle vs Calvi Noale

Villa Valle and Calvi Noale drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on December 1, 2024.

Goals: N. Stalla (24'), B. Mecca (47').

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Villa D'Almè in Villa D'Almè.