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Calvi Noale vs Villa Valle — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Calvi Noale
Calvi Noale
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Villa Valle
Villa Valle
4/13/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 35Stadio Comunale Azzurri d'Italia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Calvi Noale35%
×Draw28%
Villa Valle37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calvi Noale
1.18
Villa Valle
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 19 away

creates per match

Calvi Noale
1.25
Villa Valle
1.32

allows per match

Calvi Noale
1.11
Villa Valle
1.11

finishing

Calvi Noale+0.00on par
Villa Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calvi Noale ↓

Villa Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Calvi Noale or draw
63%
Calvi Noale or Villa Valle
72%
Draw or Villa Valle
65%

Winning margin

Calvi Noale wins by 2+
15%
Villa Valle wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Calvi Noale 1+ goals
69%
Calvi Noale 2+ goals
33%
Calvi Noale 3+ goals
12%
Villa Valle 1+ goals
70%
Villa Valle 2+ goals
34%
Villa Valle 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Calvi Noale (draw refunded)
49%
Villa Valle (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calvi Noale at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

Villa Valle away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calvi Noale attack 1.25 + Villa Valle defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Villa Valle attack 1.32 + Calvi Noale defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Calvi Noale scores more
35%
level
28%
Villa Valle scores more
37%

Villa Valle at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Villa Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Calvi Noale vs Villa Valle

Villa Valle beat Calvi Noale 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Azzurri d'Italia in Noale.