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Villa Santa Brígida vs Tenerife II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Villa Santa Brígida
Villa Santa Brígida
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tenerife II
Tenerife II
10/1/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 4Campo de Fútbol Parque Atlántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Villa Santa Brígida39%
×Draw28%
Tenerife II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Santa Brígida
1.25
Tenerife II
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 74 away

creates per match

Villa Santa Brígida
1.42
Tenerife II
1.46

allows per match

Villa Santa Brígida
0.84
Tenerife II
1.08

finishing

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par
Tenerife II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Santa Brígida ↓

Tenerife II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Villa Santa Brígida or draw
66%
Villa Santa Brígida or Tenerife II
72%
Draw or Tenerife II
61%

Winning margin

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+
17%
Tenerife II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals
71%
Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals
36%
Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals
13%
Tenerife II 1+ goals
68%
Tenerife II 2+ goals
32%
Tenerife II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)
53%
Tenerife II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Santa Brígida at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 110 matches

Tenerife II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Santa Brígida attack 1.42 + Tenerife II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tenerife II attack 1.46 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Villa Santa Brígida scores more
39%
level
28%
Tenerife II scores more
34%

Villa Santa Brígida at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Villa Santa Brígida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Villa Santa Brígida 2–0 Tenerife II

Villa Santa Brígida beat Tenerife II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Parque Atlántico in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.