Tenerife II 1–1 Villa Santa Brígida: Result & Stats

Tenerife II

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Villa Santa Brígida

3/10/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 24Ciudad Deportiva de Geneto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Tenerife II55%

×Draw24%

Villa Santa Brígida21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tenerife IIExpected goals in this matchVilla Santa Brígida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.92

Tenerife II

1.67

Villa Santa Brígida

0.92

Tenerife II creates 82% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 109 away

1.83

creates per match

0.96

0.88

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Tenerife II

1.83

Villa Santa Brígida

0.96

allows per match

Tenerife II

0.88

Villa Santa Brígida

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tenerife II+0.00on par

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenerife II ↓

Villa Santa Brígida →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tenerife II or draw

79%

Tenerife II or Villa Santa Brígida

76%

Draw or Villa Santa Brígida

45%

Winning margin

Tenerife II wins by 2+

30%

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+

Team goals

Tenerife II 1+ goals

81%

Tenerife II 2+ goals

50%

Tenerife II 3+ goals

23%

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals

60%

Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals

23%

Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Tenerife II (draw refunded)

73%

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tenerife II at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.88 · 75 matches

Villa Santa Brígida away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.51 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tenerife II attack 1.83 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.67

Villa Santa Brígida attack 0.96 + Tenerife II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tenerife II scores more

55%

level

24%

Villa Santa Brígida scores more

21%

Tenerife II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tenerife II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tenerife II vs Villa Santa Brígida

Tenerife II and Villa Santa Brígida drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Geneto in Tenerife.

Tenerife II vs Villa Santa Brígida — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tenerife II vs Villa Santa Brígida