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Villa Santa Brígida vs San Bartolomé — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Villa Santa Brígida
Villa Santa Brígida
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Bartolomé
San Bartolomé
2/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 21Campo Los Olivos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Villa Santa Brígida51%
×Draw26%
San Bartolomé23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Santa Brígida
1.52
San Bartolomé
0.92

Villa Santa Brígida creates 65% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 51 away

creates per match

Villa Santa Brígida
1.42
San Bartolomé
1.00

allows per match

Villa Santa Brígida
0.84
San Bartolomé
1.63

finishing

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par
San Bartolomé+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Santa Brígida ↓

San Bartolomé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Villa Santa Brígida or draw
77%
Villa Santa Brígida or San Bartolomé
74%
Draw or San Bartolomé
49%

Winning margin

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+
26%
San Bartolomé wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals
78%
Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals
45%
Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals
20%
San Bartolomé 1+ goals
60%
San Bartolomé 2+ goals
23%
San Bartolomé 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)
69%
San Bartolomé (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Santa Brígida at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 110 matches

San Bartolomé away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Santa Brígida attack 1.42 + San Bartolomé defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.52

San Bartolomé attack 1.00 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Villa Santa Brígida scores more
51%
level
26%
San Bartolomé scores more
23%

Villa Santa Brígida at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Villa Santa Brígida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villa Santa Brígida vs San Bartolomé

Villa Santa Brígida beat San Bartolomé 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Los Olivos in Santa Brígida.