San Bartolomé 2–0 Villa Santa Brígida

San Bartolomé

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Villa Santa Brígida

10/26/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 8Estadio Municipal Pedro Espinosa De León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

San Bartolomé47%

×Draw27%

Villa Santa Brígida26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San BartoloméExpected goals in this matchVilla Santa Brígida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.96

San Bartolomé

1.39

Villa Santa Brígida

0.96

San Bartolomé creates 45% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 109 away

1.27

creates per match

0.96

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

San Bartolomé

1.27

Villa Santa Brígida

0.96

allows per match

San Bartolomé

0.96

Villa Santa Brígida

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Bartolomé+0.00on par

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Bartolomé ↓

Villa Santa Brígida →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

San Bartolomé or draw

74%

San Bartolomé or Villa Santa Brígida

73%

Draw or Villa Santa Brígida

53%

Winning margin

San Bartolomé wins by 2+

22%

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+

Team goals

San Bartolomé 1+ goals

75%

San Bartolomé 2+ goals

40%

San Bartolomé 3+ goals

16%

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals

62%

Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals

25%

Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals

Draw no bet

San Bartolomé (draw refunded)

64%

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Bartolomé at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.96 · 51 matches

Villa Santa Brígida away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.51 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Bartolomé attack 1.27 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.39

Villa Santa Brígida attack 0.96 + San Bartolomé defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

San Bartolomé scores more

47%

level

27%

Villa Santa Brígida scores more

26%

San Bartolomé at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "San Bartolomé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff