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Villa Santa Brígida vs Las Zocas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Villa Santa Brígida
Villa Santa Brígida
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Las Zocas
Las Zocas
2/2/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 17Campo Los Olivos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Villa Santa Brígida68%
×Draw22%
Las Zocas10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Santa Brígida
1.80
Las Zocas
0.54

Villa Santa Brígida creates 233% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 16 away

creates per match

Villa Santa Brígida
1.42
Las Zocas
0.25

allows per match

Villa Santa Brígida
0.84
Las Zocas
2.19

finishing

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par
Las Zocas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Santa Brígida ↓

Las Zocas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Villa Santa Brígida or draw
90%
Villa Santa Brígida or Las Zocas
78%
Draw or Las Zocas
32%

Winning margin

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+
41%
Las Zocas wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals
83%
Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals
54%
Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals
27%
Las Zocas 1+ goals
42%
Las Zocas 2+ goals
10%
Las Zocas 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)
87%
Las Zocas (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Santa Brígida at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 110 matches

Las Zocas away — creates 0.25, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Santa Brígida attack 1.42 + Las Zocas defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.80

Las Zocas attack 0.25 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Villa Santa Brígida scores more
68%
level
22%
Las Zocas scores more
10%

Villa Santa Brígida at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Villa Santa Brígida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villa Santa Brígida vs Las Zocas

Villa Santa Brígida beat Las Zocas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on February 2, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Los Olivos in Santa Brígida.