Las Zocas 2–5 Villa Santa Brígida: Result & Stats

Las Zocas

2 – 5

HT: 1 – 4

Villa Santa Brígida

5/1/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 34Estadio Juanito Marrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Las Zocas29%

×Draw27%

Villa Santa Brígida44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las ZocasExpected goals in this matchVilla Santa Brígida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.39

Las Zocas

1.07

Villa Santa Brígida

1.39

Villa Santa Brígida creates 30% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 109 away

0.63

creates per match

0.96

1.81

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Las Zocas

0.63

Villa Santa Brígida

0.96

allows per match

Las Zocas

1.81

Villa Santa Brígida

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Zocas+0.00on par

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Zocas ↓

Villa Santa Brígida →

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Las Zocas or draw

56%

Las Zocas or Villa Santa Brígida

73%

Draw or Villa Santa Brígida

71%

Winning margin

Las Zocas wins by 2+

11%

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Las Zocas 1+ goals

66%

Las Zocas 2+ goals

29%

Las Zocas 3+ goals

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals

75%

Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals

40%

Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Las Zocas (draw refunded)

40%

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Las Zocas at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Villa Santa Brígida away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.51 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Las Zocas attack 0.63 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.07

Villa Santa Brígida attack 0.96 + Las Zocas defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Las Zocas scores more

29%

level

27%

Villa Santa Brígida scores more

44%

Villa Santa Brígida at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Villa Santa Brígida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Las Zocas 2–5 Villa Santa Brígida

Villa Santa Brígida beat Las Zocas 5-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Juanito Marrero in Tenerife.

Las Zocas vs Villa Santa Brígida — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Las Zocas 2–5 Villa Santa Brígida