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Villa Santa Brígida vs Las Palmas II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Villa Santa Brígida
Villa Santa Brígida
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
4/4/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 29Campo Los Olivos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Villa Santa Brígida36%
×Draw28%
Las Palmas II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Santa Brígida
1.17
Las Palmas II
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 49 away

creates per match

Villa Santa Brígida
1.42
Las Palmas II
1.45

allows per match

Villa Santa Brígida
0.84
Las Palmas II
0.92

finishing

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par
Las Palmas II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Santa Brígida ↓

Las Palmas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Villa Santa Brígida or draw
65%
Villa Santa Brígida or Las Palmas II
72%
Draw or Las Palmas II
64%

Winning margin

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+
15%
Las Palmas II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals
69%
Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals
33%
Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals
11%
Las Palmas II 1+ goals
68%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
32%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)
51%
Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Santa Brígida at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 110 matches

Las Palmas II away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.92 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Santa Brígida attack 1.42 + Las Palmas II defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.17

Las Palmas II attack 1.45 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Villa Santa Brígida scores more
36%
level
28%
Las Palmas II scores more
35%

Villa Santa Brígida at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Villa Santa Brígida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villa Santa Brígida 0 – 0 Las Palmas II

Villa Santa Brígida and Las Palmas II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 4, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Los Olivos in Santa Brígida.