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Las Palmas II vs Villa Santa Brígida — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Villa Santa Brígida
Villa Santa Brígida
11/24/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 12Anexo Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Las Palmas II65%
×Draw21%
Villa Santa Brígida13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Palmas II
1.90
Villa Santa Brígida
0.72

Las Palmas II creates 164% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 109 away

creates per match

Las Palmas II
2.29
Villa Santa Brígida
0.96

allows per match

Las Palmas II
0.49
Villa Santa Brígida
1.51

finishing

Las Palmas II+0.00on par
Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas II ↓

Villa Santa Brígida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Las Palmas II or draw
87%
Las Palmas II or Villa Santa Brígida
79%
Draw or Villa Santa Brígida
35%

Winning margin

Las Palmas II wins by 2+
39%
Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Las Palmas II 1+ goals
85%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
56%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
29%
Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals
51%
Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals
16%
Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
83%
Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas II at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.49 · 49 matches

Villa Santa Brígida away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.51 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas II attack 2.29 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.90

Villa Santa Brígida attack 0.96 + Las Palmas II defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Las Palmas II scores more
65%
level
21%
Villa Santa Brígida scores more
13%

Las Palmas II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Las Palmas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Las Palmas II 0 – 0 Villa Santa Brígida

Las Palmas II and Villa Santa Brígida drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Anexo Gran Canaria in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.