Villa Santa Brígida 1–2 Guía: Result & Stats

Villa Santa Brígida

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Guía

Roberto 90+3' (OG)

Melo 79'

Joaquín 76'

11/27/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 6Campo Los Olivos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Villa Santa Brígida56%

×Draw24%

Guía21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa Santa BrígidaExpected goals in this matchGuía

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.96

Villa Santa Brígida

1.74

Guía

0.96

Villa Santa Brígida creates 81% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 14 away

1.42

creates per match

1.07

0.84

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Villa Santa Brígida

1.42

Guía

1.07

allows per match

Villa Santa Brígida

0.84

Guía

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par

Guía+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Santa Brígida ↓

Guía →

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Villa Santa Brígida or draw

79%

Villa Santa Brígida or Guía

76%

Draw or Guía

44%

Winning margin

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+

31%

Guía wins by 2+

Team goals

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals

82%

Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals

52%

Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals

25%

Guía 1+ goals

62%

Guía 2+ goals

25%

Guía 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)

73%

Guía (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Villa Santa Brígida at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 110 matches

Guía away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Villa Santa Brígida attack 1.42 + Guía defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.74

Guía attack 1.07 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Villa Santa Brígida scores more

56%

level

24%

Guía scores more

21%

Villa Santa Brígida at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Villa Santa Brígida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

46'

56'

65'

75'

Heriberto← Calem

75'

Peri← Brian Cebolla

76'

Joaquín

79'

Melo

82'

Cristian← Alexander Martel

82'

David Flaco← Joaquín

90+3'

RobertoOwn goal

Villa

Guía

⚽

🥅

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Claudio Morera

46'▲Yeremi Valerón←▼René

75'▲Heriberto←▼Calem

75'▲Peri←▼Brian Cebolla

Villa Santa Brígida substitutes

ValerónHeribertoPeri

Manager: Moisés Díaz

46'▲Iván Morris←▼Ubay

56'▲Jesús Farías←▼Kilian

65'▲B. Ibarguen←▼Maceo

82'▲Cristian←▼Alexander Martel

82'▲David Flaco←▼Joaquín

Guía substitutes

MorrisFaríasIbarguenCristianFlaco

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Villa Santa Brígida 1–2 Guía

Guía beat Villa Santa Brígida 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 27, 2020.

Goals: Joaquín (76'), Melo (79'), Roberto (90+3' o.g.).

The match was played at Campo Los Olivos in Santa Brígida.

Villa Santa Brígida vs Guía — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Villa Santa Brígida 1–2 Guía