Guía 1–3 Villa Santa Brígida: Result & Stats

Guía

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Villa Santa Brígida

Luisja 68' (pen)

Calem 65'

Alberto Sanfiel 53' (OG)

Santi Domínguez 51'

4/10/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 15Estadio Octavio Estevez de Guia de Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Guía45%

×Draw26%

Villa Santa Brígida29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuíaExpected goals in this matchVilla Santa Brígida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.13

Guía

1.47

Villa Santa Brígida

1.13

Guía creates 30% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 109 away

1.43

creates per match

0.96

1.29

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Guía

1.43

Villa Santa Brígida

0.96

allows per match

Guía

1.29

Villa Santa Brígida

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guía+0.00on par

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guía ↓

Villa Santa Brígida →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Guía or draw

71%

Guía or Villa Santa Brígida

74%

Draw or Villa Santa Brígida

55%

Winning margin

Guía wins by 2+

22%

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Guía 1+ goals

77%

Guía 2+ goals

43%

Guía 3+ goals

18%

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals

68%

Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals

31%

Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Guía (draw refunded)

61%

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Guía at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Villa Santa Brígida away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.51 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Guía attack 1.43 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.47

Villa Santa Brígida attack 0.96 + Guía defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Guía scores more

45%

level

26%

Villa Santa Brígida scores more

29%

Guía at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Guía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'

Santi Domínguez

53'

Alberto SanfielOwn goal

61'

Javi Trujillo← José Merino

65'

Rivero← Roberto

65'

Melo← Alberto Sanfiel

65'

Omar Díaz← Javi Mejías

65'

Calem

68'

LuisjaPenalty

70'

Aythami← Alexander Martel

70'

Luisja← David Flaco

85'

Ernesto Santana← Calem

90'

Giovanni← Owen

Guía

Villa

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Iván Mendoza

65'▲Rivero←▼Roberto

65'▲Melo←▼Alberto Sanfiel

65'▲Omar Díaz←▼Javi Mejías

70'▲Aythami←▼Alexander Martel

70'▲Luisja←▼David Flaco

Guía substitutes

RiveroMeloDíazAythamiLuisja

Manager: Ángel Sánchez

61'▲Javi Trujillo←▼José Merino

85'▲Ernesto Santana←▼Calem

90'▲Giovanni←▼Owen

Villa Santa Brígida substitutes

TrujilloSantanaGiovanni

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Guía 1–3 Villa Santa Brígida

Villa Santa Brígida beat Guía 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 10, 2021.

Goals: Santi Domínguez (51'), Alberto Sanfiel (53' o.g.), Calem (65'), Luisja (68' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Octavio Estevez de Guia de Gran Canaria in Las Palmas.

Guía vs Villa Santa Brígida — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Guía 1–3 Villa Santa Brígida