Villa Santa Brígida 3–1 Gran Tarajal

Villa Santa Brígida

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Gran Tarajal

11/26/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 11Campo de Fútbol Parque Atlántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Villa Santa Brígida53%

×Draw25%

Gran Tarajal22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa Santa BrígidaExpected goals in this matchGran Tarajal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.91

Villa Santa Brígida

1.58

Gran Tarajal

0.91

Villa Santa Brígida creates 74% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 75 away

1.42

creates per match

0.97

0.84

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Villa Santa Brígida

1.42

Gran Tarajal

0.97

allows per match

Villa Santa Brígida

0.84

Gran Tarajal

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par

Gran Tarajal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Santa Brígida ↓

Gran Tarajal →

0–08%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Villa Santa Brígida or draw

78%

Villa Santa Brígida or Gran Tarajal

75%

Draw or Gran Tarajal

47%

Winning margin

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+

28%

Gran Tarajal wins by 2+

Team goals

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals

79%

Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals

47%

Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals

21%

Gran Tarajal 1+ goals

60%

Gran Tarajal 2+ goals

23%

Gran Tarajal 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)

71%

Gran Tarajal (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Villa Santa Brígida at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 110 matches

Gran Tarajal away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.75 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Villa Santa Brígida attack 1.42 + Gran Tarajal defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.58

Gran Tarajal attack 0.97 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Villa Santa Brígida scores more

53%

level

25%

Gran Tarajal scores more

22%

Villa Santa Brígida at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Villa Santa Brígida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villa Santa Brígida vs Gran Tarajal

Villa Santa Brígida beat Gran Tarajal 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 26, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Parque Atlántico in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.

Villa Santa Brígida vs Gran Tarajal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Villa Santa Brígida vs Gran Tarajal