Gran Tarajal 0–1 Villa Santa Brígida

Gran Tarajal

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Villa Santa Brígida

2/11/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 20Estadio Municipal de Gran Tarajal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Gran Tarajal47%

×Draw27%

Villa Santa Brígida26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gran TarajalExpected goals in this matchVilla Santa Brígida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.00

Gran Tarajal

1.43

Villa Santa Brígida

1.00

Gran Tarajal creates 43% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 109 away

1.34

creates per match

0.96

1.05

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Gran Tarajal

1.34

Villa Santa Brígida

0.96

allows per match

Gran Tarajal

1.05

Villa Santa Brígida

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gran Tarajal+0.00on par

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gran Tarajal ↓

Villa Santa Brígida →

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Gran Tarajal or draw

74%

Gran Tarajal or Villa Santa Brígida

73%

Draw or Villa Santa Brígida

53%

Winning margin

Gran Tarajal wins by 2+

23%

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gran Tarajal 1+ goals

76%

Gran Tarajal 2+ goals

42%

Gran Tarajal 3+ goals

17%

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals

63%

Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals

26%

Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Gran Tarajal (draw refunded)

64%

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gran Tarajal at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.05 · 73 matches

Villa Santa Brígida away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.51 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gran Tarajal attack 1.34 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.43

Villa Santa Brígida attack 0.96 + Gran Tarajal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gran Tarajal scores more

47%

level

27%

Villa Santa Brígida scores more

26%

Gran Tarajal at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gran Tarajal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff