Villa Santa Brígida 1–0 Atlético Tacoronte

Villa Santa Brígida

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Tacoronte

6/5/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 2nd Phase - 7Campo Los Olivos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Villa Santa Brígida57%

×Draw24%

Atlético Tacoronte19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa Santa BrígidaExpected goals in this matchAtlético Tacoronte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.85

Villa Santa Brígida

1.69

Atlético Tacoronte

0.85

Villa Santa Brígida creates 99% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 28 away

1.42

creates per match

0.86

0.84

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Villa Santa Brígida

1.42

Atlético Tacoronte

0.86

allows per match

Villa Santa Brígida

0.84

Atlético Tacoronte

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par

Atlético Tacoronte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Santa Brígida ↓

Atlético Tacoronte →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Villa Santa Brígida or draw

81%

Villa Santa Brígida or Atlético Tacoronte

76%

Draw or Atlético Tacoronte

43%

Winning margin

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+

32%

Atlético Tacoronte wins by 2+

Team goals

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals

82%

Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals

50%

Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals

24%

Atlético Tacoronte 1+ goals

57%

Atlético Tacoronte 2+ goals

21%

Atlético Tacoronte 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)

75%

Atlético Tacoronte (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Villa Santa Brígida at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 110 matches

Atlético Tacoronte away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Villa Santa Brígida attack 1.42 + Atlético Tacoronte defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.69

Atlético Tacoronte attack 0.86 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Villa Santa Brígida scores more

57%

level

24%

Atlético Tacoronte scores more

19%

Villa Santa Brígida at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Villa Santa Brígida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff