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Atlético Tacoronte vs Villa Santa Brígida — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Atlético Tacoronte
Atlético Tacoronte
CANC
22:00
Villa Santa Brígida
Villa Santa Brígida
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 38Barranco Las Lajas Campo De Futbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Atlético Tacoronte48%
×Draw26%
Villa Santa Brígida27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tacoronte
1.50
Villa Santa Brígida
1.05

Atlético Tacoronte creates 43% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 109 away

creates per match

Atlético Tacoronte
1.48
Villa Santa Brígida
0.96

allows per match

Atlético Tacoronte
1.15
Villa Santa Brígida
1.51

finishing

Atlético Tacoronte+0.00on par
Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tacoronte ↓

Villa Santa Brígida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Tacoronte or draw
73%
Atlético Tacoronte or Villa Santa Brígida
74%
Draw or Villa Santa Brígida
52%

Winning margin

Atlético Tacoronte wins by 2+
24%
Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atlético Tacoronte 1+ goals
78%
Atlético Tacoronte 2+ goals
44%
Atlético Tacoronte 3+ goals
19%
Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals
65%
Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals
28%
Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tacoronte (draw refunded)
64%
Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tacoronte at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

Villa Santa Brígida away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.51 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tacoronte attack 1.48 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Villa Santa Brígida attack 0.96 + Atlético Tacoronte defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atlético Tacoronte scores more
48%
level
26%
Villa Santa Brígida scores more
27%

Atlético Tacoronte at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlético Tacoronte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Tacoronte face Villa Santa Brígida (Tercera División RFEF - Group 12)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 returns with Atlético Tacoronte hosting Villa Santa Brígida. Match starts May 16, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Atlético Tacoronte host Villa Santa Brígida at Barranco Las Lajas Campo De Futbol.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.