Villa San Carlos vs Sacachispas — Primera B Metropolitana 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 110+ matches
Villa San Carlos46%
Sacachispas25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Villa San Carlos creates 50% more chances
Season form · 127 home / 110 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under65
- Over35
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No59
- Yes41
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Villa San Carlos ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Villa San Carlos at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 127 matches
Sacachispas away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Villa San Carlos attack 1.31 + Sacachispas defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.26
Sacachispas attack 0.65 + Villa San Carlos defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.84
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Villa San Carlos at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Villa San Carlos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Villa Dalmine
Deportivo Laferrere
Sportivo Italiano
Deportivo Camioneros
Arsenal Sarandi
San Martín Burzaco
Deportivo Armenio
Talleres Remedios
Argentino de Merlo
Dock SudVilla San Carlos
Real Pilar
Deportivo Merlo
Comunicaciones
Flandria
Excursionistas
Argentino Quilmes
Brown DE Adrogue
UAI Urquiza
Liniers
Ituzaingó
Defensores UnidosIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Villa San Carlos host Sacachispas on Saturday, 2 March 2024 at 20:00. The match is part of the Primera B Metropolitana 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Villa San Carlos vs Sacachispas
Villa San Carlos beat Sacachispas 3-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on March 2, 2024.
The match was played at Estadio Genancio Sálice in Berisso, Provincia de Buenos Aires.