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Sacachispas vs Villa San Carlos — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Sacachispas
Sacachispas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Villa San Carlos
Villa San Carlos
10/9/2023Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 17Estadio Beto Larrosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Sacachispas41%
×Draw30%
Villa San Carlos29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sacachispas
1.15
Villa San Carlos
0.91

Sacachispas creates 26% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 128 away

creates per match

Sacachispas
0.99
Villa San Carlos
0.82

allows per match

Sacachispas
0.99
Villa San Carlos
1.30

finishing

Sacachispas+0.00on par
Villa San Carlos+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sacachispas ↓

Villa San Carlos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sacachispas or draw
71%
Sacachispas or Villa San Carlos
70%
Draw or Villa San Carlos
59%

Winning margin

Sacachispas wins by 2+
17%
Villa San Carlos wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sacachispas 1+ goals
68%
Sacachispas 2+ goals
32%
Sacachispas 3+ goals
11%
Villa San Carlos 1+ goals
60%
Villa San Carlos 2+ goals
23%
Villa San Carlos 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sacachispas (draw refunded)
59%
Villa San Carlos (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sacachispas at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Villa San Carlos away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.30 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sacachispas attack 0.99 + Villa San Carlos defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Villa San Carlos attack 0.82 + Sacachispas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sacachispas scores more
41%
level
30%
Villa San Carlos scores more
29%

Sacachispas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sacachispas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sacachispas vs Villa San Carlos

Sacachispas beat Villa San Carlos 2-1 in Primera B Metropolitana on October 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Beto Larrosa in Villa Soldati, Provincia de Buenos Aires.