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Villa San Carlos vs Excursionistas — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Villa San Carlos
Villa San Carlos
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Excursionistas
Excursionistas
4/5/2025Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 10Genacio Salice Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Villa San Carlos40%
×Draw27%
Excursionistas33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa San Carlos
1.29
Excursionistas
1.15

Villa San Carlos creates 12% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 57 away

creates per match

Villa San Carlos
1.31
Excursionistas
1.25

allows per match

Villa San Carlos
1.04
Excursionistas
1.26

finishing

Villa San Carlos+0.00on par
Excursionistas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa San Carlos ↓

Excursionistas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Villa San Carlos or draw
67%
Villa San Carlos or Excursionistas
73%
Draw or Excursionistas
60%

Winning margin

Villa San Carlos wins by 2+
18%
Excursionistas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Villa San Carlos 1+ goals
72%
Villa San Carlos 2+ goals
37%
Villa San Carlos 3+ goals
14%
Excursionistas 1+ goals
68%
Excursionistas 2+ goals
32%
Excursionistas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Villa San Carlos (draw refunded)
55%
Excursionistas (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa San Carlos at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 127 matches

Excursionistas away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa San Carlos attack 1.31 + Excursionistas defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Excursionistas attack 1.25 + Villa San Carlos defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Villa San Carlos scores more
40%
level
27%
Excursionistas scores more
33%

Villa San Carlos at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Villa San Carlos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villa San Carlos vs Excursionistas

Villa San Carlos beat Excursionistas 2-1 in Primera B Metropolitana on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Genacio Salice Stadium in Buenos Aires.