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Excursionistas vs Villa San Carlos — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Excursionistas
Excursionistas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Villa San Carlos
Villa San Carlos
2/24/2024Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 5Estadio de Excursionistas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Excursionistas50%
×Draw28%
Villa San Carlos22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Excursionistas
1.38
Villa San Carlos
0.82

Excursionistas creates 68% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 128 away

creates per match

Excursionistas
1.46
Villa San Carlos
0.82

allows per match

Excursionistas
0.82
Villa San Carlos
1.30

finishing

Excursionistas+0.00on par
Villa San Carlos+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excursionistas ↓

Villa San Carlos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Excursionistas or draw
78%
Excursionistas or Villa San Carlos
72%
Draw or Villa San Carlos
50%

Winning margin

Excursionistas wins by 2+
24%
Villa San Carlos wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Excursionistas 1+ goals
75%
Excursionistas 2+ goals
40%
Excursionistas 3+ goals
16%
Villa San Carlos 1+ goals
56%
Villa San Carlos 2+ goals
20%
Villa San Carlos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Excursionistas (draw refunded)
69%
Villa San Carlos (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excursionistas at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.82 · 57 matches

Villa San Carlos away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.30 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excursionistas attack 1.46 + Villa San Carlos defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.38

Villa San Carlos attack 0.82 + Excursionistas defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Excursionistas scores more
50%
level
28%
Villa San Carlos scores more
22%

Excursionistas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Excursionistas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B Metropolitana: Excursionistas 1–0 Villa San Carlos

Excursionistas beat Villa San Carlos 1-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de Excursionistas in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.