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Villa Nova vs Uniao Trabalhadores — Serie D 2026

Villa Nova
Villa Nova
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Uniao Trabalhadores
Uniao Trabalhadores
Rafael Morisco 53' (pen)
Rafael 32'
7/30/2017Serie DSerie D · 8th FinalsEstádio Municipal Castor de Cifuentes (Nova Lima, Minas Gerais)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Villa Nova38%
×Draw28%
Uniao Trabalhadores34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Nova
1.21
Uniao Trabalhadores
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Villa Nova
1.00
Uniao Trabalhadores
0.57

allows per match

Villa Nova
1.67
Uniao Trabalhadores
1.43

finishing

Villa Nova+0.00on par
Uniao Trabalhadores+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Nova ↓

Uniao Trabalhadores →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Villa Nova or draw
66%
Villa Nova or Uniao Trabalhadores
72%
Draw or Uniao Trabalhadores
62%

Winning margin

Villa Nova wins by 2+
16%
Uniao Trabalhadores wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Villa Nova 1+ goals
70%
Villa Nova 2+ goals
34%
Villa Nova 3+ goals
12%
Uniao Trabalhadores 1+ goals
67%
Uniao Trabalhadores 2+ goals
31%
Uniao Trabalhadores 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Villa Nova (draw refunded)
53%
Uniao Trabalhadores (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Nova at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Uniao Trabalhadores away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Nova attack 1.00 + Uniao Trabalhadores defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Uniao Trabalhadores attack 0.57 + Villa Nova defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Villa Nova scores more
38%
level
28%
Uniao Trabalhadores scores more
34%

Villa Nova at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Villa Nova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
Rafael
53'
Rafael MoriscoPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villa Nova 1 – 1 Uniao Trabalhadores

Villa Nova and Uniao Trabalhadores drew 1-1 in Serie D on July 30, 2017.

Goals: Rafael (32'), Rafael Morisco (53' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Castor de Cifuentes (Nova Lima, Minas Gerais).