Uniao Trabalhadores 2–1 Villa Nova: Result & Stats

Uniao Trabalhadores

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Villa Nova

3/1/2020

Mineiro - 1 · Round 7Estádio Zama Maciel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Uniao Trabalhadores38%

×Draw29%

Villa Nova32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uniao TrabalhadoresExpected goals in this matchVilla Nova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.04

Uniao Trabalhadores

1.16

Villa Nova

1.04

Uniao Trabalhadores creates 12% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 27 away

0.91

creates per match

0.96

1.13

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Uniao Trabalhadores

0.91

Villa Nova

0.96

allows per match

Uniao Trabalhadores

1.13

Villa Nova

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uniao Trabalhadores+0.00on par

Villa Nova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uniao Trabalhadores ↓

Villa Nova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Uniao Trabalhadores or draw

68%

Uniao Trabalhadores or Villa Nova

71%

Draw or Villa Nova

62%

Winning margin

Uniao Trabalhadores wins by 2+

16%

Villa Nova wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Uniao Trabalhadores 1+ goals

69%

Uniao Trabalhadores 2+ goals

32%

Uniao Trabalhadores 3+ goals

11%

Villa Nova 1+ goals

65%

Villa Nova 2+ goals

28%

Villa Nova 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Uniao Trabalhadores (draw refunded)

54%

Villa Nova (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uniao Trabalhadores at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

Villa Nova away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uniao Trabalhadores attack 0.91 + Villa Nova defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.16

Villa Nova attack 0.96 + Uniao Trabalhadores defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Uniao Trabalhadores scores more

38%

level

29%

Villa Nova scores more

32%

Uniao Trabalhadores at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Uniao Trabalhadores will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.