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Villa Mitre vs Liniers Bahía Blanca — Torneo Federal A 2018

Villa Mitre
Villa Mitre
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Liniers Bahía Blanca
Liniers Bahía Blanca
7/2/2023Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group B - 19Estadio El Fortín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Villa Mitre64%
×Draw24%
Liniers Bahía Blanca12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Mitre
1.61
Liniers Bahía Blanca
0.53

Villa Mitre creates 204% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 33 away

creates per match

Villa Mitre
1.61
Liniers Bahía Blanca
0.58

allows per match

Villa Mitre
0.49
Liniers Bahía Blanca
1.61

finishing

Villa Mitre+0.00on par
Liniers Bahía Blanca+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Mitre ↓

Liniers Bahía Blanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Villa Mitre or draw
88%
Villa Mitre or Liniers Bahía Blanca
76%
Draw or Liniers Bahía Blanca
36%

Winning margin

Villa Mitre wins by 2+
36%
Liniers Bahía Blanca wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Villa Mitre 1+ goals
80%
Villa Mitre 2+ goals
48%
Villa Mitre 3+ goals
22%
Liniers Bahía Blanca 1+ goals
41%
Liniers Bahía Blanca 2+ goals
10%
Liniers Bahía Blanca 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Villa Mitre (draw refunded)
84%
Liniers Bahía Blanca (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Mitre at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.49 · 119 matches

Liniers Bahía Blanca away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Mitre attack 1.61 + Liniers Bahía Blanca defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.61

Liniers Bahía Blanca attack 0.58 + Villa Mitre defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Villa Mitre scores more
64%
level
24%
Liniers Bahía Blanca scores more
12%

Villa Mitre at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Villa Mitre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villa Mitre vs Liniers Bahía Blanca

Villa Mitre beat Liniers Bahía Blanca 4-1 in Torneo Federal A on July 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Fortín in Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires.