Liniers Bahía Blanca 2–0 Villa Mitre

Liniers Bahía Blanca

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Villa Mitre

9/24/2022

Torneo Federal A · Group A - 31Estadio Dr. Alejandro Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Liniers Bahía Blanca35%

×Draw32%

Villa Mitre34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liniers Bahía BlancaExpected goals in this matchVilla Mitre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

0.95

Liniers Bahía Blanca

0.97

Villa Mitre

0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 115 away

1.03

creates per match

0.80

1.09

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Liniers Bahía Blanca

1.03

Villa Mitre

0.80

allows per match

Liniers Bahía Blanca

1.09

Villa Mitre

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liniers Bahía Blanca+0.00on par

Villa Mitre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liniers Bahía Blanca ↓

Villa Mitre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Liniers Bahía Blanca or draw

66%

Liniers Bahía Blanca or Villa Mitre

68%

Draw or Villa Mitre

65%

Winning margin

Liniers Bahía Blanca wins by 2+

13%

Villa Mitre wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Liniers Bahía Blanca 1+ goals

62%

Liniers Bahía Blanca 2+ goals

25%

Liniers Bahía Blanca 3+ goals

7%

Villa Mitre 1+ goals

61%

Villa Mitre 2+ goals

25%

Villa Mitre 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Liniers Bahía Blanca (draw refunded)

51%

Villa Mitre (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liniers Bahía Blanca at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

Villa Mitre away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.90 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liniers Bahía Blanca attack 1.03 + Villa Mitre defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.97

Villa Mitre attack 0.80 + Liniers Bahía Blanca defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Liniers Bahía Blanca scores more

35%

level

32%

Villa Mitre scores more

34%

Liniers Bahía Blanca at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Liniers Bahía Blanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff