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Villa Mitre vs Independiente Neuquén — Torneo Federal A 2018

Villa Mitre
Villa Mitre
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Independiente Neuquén
Independiente Neuquén
N. Ihitz 87'
M. Tunessi 26'
C. Herrera 19'
Á. Klusener 41'
12/10/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 1 - 18Estadio El Fortín (Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Villa Mitre68%
×Draw22%
Independiente Neuquén10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Mitre
1.72
Independiente Neuquén
0.49

Villa Mitre creates 251% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 12 away

creates per match

Villa Mitre
1.61
Independiente Neuquén
0.50

allows per match

Villa Mitre
0.49
Independiente Neuquén
1.83

finishing

Villa Mitre+0.00on par
Independiente Neuquén+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Mitre ↓

Independiente Neuquén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Villa Mitre or draw
90%
Villa Mitre or Independiente Neuquén
78%
Draw or Independiente Neuquén
32%

Winning margin

Villa Mitre wins by 2+
39%
Independiente Neuquén wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Villa Mitre 1+ goals
82%
Villa Mitre 2+ goals
51%
Villa Mitre 3+ goals
25%
Independiente Neuquén 1+ goals
39%
Independiente Neuquén 2+ goals
9%
Independiente Neuquén 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Villa Mitre (draw refunded)
87%
Independiente Neuquén (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Mitre at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.49 · 119 matches

Independiente Neuquén away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Mitre attack 1.61 + Independiente Neuquén defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.72

Independiente Neuquén attack 0.50 + Villa Mitre defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Villa Mitre scores more
68%
level
22%
Independiente Neuquén scores more
10%

Villa Mitre at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Villa Mitre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
C. Herrera
26'
M. Tunessi
41'
Á. Klusener
87'
N. Ihitz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villa Mitre 3 – 1 Independiente Neuquén

Villa Mitre beat Independiente Neuquén 3-1 in Torneo Federal A on December 10, 2018.

Goals: C. Herrera (19'), M. Tunessi (26'), Á. Klusener (41'), N. Ihitz (87').

The match was played at Estadio El Fortín (Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires).