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Independiente Neuquén vs Villa Mitre — Torneo Federal A 2018

Independiente Neuquén
Independiente Neuquén
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Villa Mitre
Villa Mitre
10/21/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 1 - 9Estadio José Rosas y Perito Moreno (Neuquén, Provincia de Neuquén)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Independiente Neuquén33%
×Draw31%
Villa Mitre36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Neuquén
0.95
Villa Mitre
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 115 away

creates per match

Independiente Neuquén
1.00
Villa Mitre
0.80

allows per match

Independiente Neuquén
1.25
Villa Mitre
0.90

finishing

Independiente Neuquén+0.00on par
Villa Mitre+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Neuquén ↓

Villa Mitre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Independiente Neuquén or draw
64%
Independiente Neuquén or Villa Mitre
69%
Draw or Villa Mitre
67%

Winning margin

Independiente Neuquén wins by 2+
12%
Villa Mitre wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Independiente Neuquén 1+ goals
61%
Independiente Neuquén 2+ goals
25%
Independiente Neuquén 3+ goals
7%
Villa Mitre 1+ goals
64%
Villa Mitre 2+ goals
27%
Villa Mitre 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Independiente Neuquén (draw refunded)
47%
Villa Mitre (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Neuquén at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Villa Mitre away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.90 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Neuquén attack 1.00 + Villa Mitre defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Villa Mitre attack 0.80 + Independiente Neuquén defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Independiente Neuquén scores more
33%
level
31%
Villa Mitre scores more
36%

Villa Mitre at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Villa Mitre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Independiente Neuquén 2 – 2 Villa Mitre

Independiente Neuquén and Villa Mitre drew 2-2 in Torneo Federal A on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio José Rosas y Perito Moreno (Neuquén, Provincia de Neuquén).